Michael Robinson (VIP Sports)

October 20, 2004 

This article was written for, and is the exclusive property of VIP Sports 

Another exciting week of the NFL season, and another frustrating week of selections. Three of the games were decided in the final possession, and all three went against us. The year to date record is 10-15, but hang in there, as the breaks are sure to go the other way soon. 

The first game was Dallas giving three points to Pittsburgh. Dallas had a 20-17 lead with 2:36 left and the ball at the Steelers 47 yard line. The worst result looked to be a push, but Dallas quarterback, Vinny Testaverde fumbled and the Steelers scored a touchdown five plays later for a 24-20 stunner.  

The second game was the Chicago Bears even with the Washington Redskins.  This was a defensive battle all the way, with neither quarterback even throwing for 100 yards. Clinton Portis did his part for Washington, rushing for 171 yards, and the Redskins held on for a slim 13-10 win. 

The third loss was Seattle getting four points from New England, and losing 30-20. Seattle cut the lead to 23-20 with three minutes left, but then New England scored a touchdown to provide the comfortable margin of victory. The Seahawks were also stopped inside the New England one yard line as time expired. 

The only win of the week was Green Bay getting two points from Detroit. This was a must win for Green Bay, and Detroit has been overachieving all year. The difference in this game was the quarterbacks, as Brett Favre flourished and Joey Harrington stunk up the joint. Green Bay dominated throughout, 38-10. 

San Diego (+3) at Carolina

San Diego coach, Marty Schottenheimer has led his teams to the playoffs 11 times, more than any other active NFL head coach. So it is not too surprising that his Chargers team is 3-3 and playing far better than anyone expected. San Diego almost went to 4-2, but lost a heartbreaking game last week at Atlanta, 21-20.  

On defense, San Diego is strong against the run and vulnerable against the pass. On offense, quarterback Drew Brees is playing like he has no intention of giving up his job to first round pick, Phillip Rivers. Now, Brees has another bullet in his gun, as the team has acquired receiver Keenan McCardell from Tampa Bay. 

If the Carolina Panthers (1-4) are looking for a corporate sponsor, they might want to contact the Charlotte Medical Center. The Panthers have lost a number of their key players, including wide receiver Steve Smith, running back DeShaun Foster, and defensive tackle Kris Jenkins. 

On top of all the injuries, the Panthers just have not played good football. Quarterback, Jake Delhomme has struggled without some of his offensive weapons and with a new offensive line. Delhomme threw four interceptions in a 30-8 blowout loss to Philadelphia, and now leads the league in interceptions, with nine.  

If Carolina has any hopes of defending their NFC championship from 2003, they have to win this game. The reality is though, that this is not the same team as last year. This should be a close contest with the margin of victory decided by a field goal. In those cases, you always take the points.  

Pick: San Diego

Chicago (+6.5) at Tampa Bay 

The Bears (1-4) are now reeling after a 13-10 loss at home to Washington. The Bears’ offense is sputtering behind quarterback Jonathan Quinn. Quinn has struggled filling in for Rex Grossman, throwing for only 65 yards in the Redskins game. Those are passing numbers you see in High School football, not the NFL.

Chicago must be able to run the ball with Thomas Jones if they are to stay in this game. Jones has been their best offensive player, and he will be motivated this week playing against his former team. If Jones can not keep the Tampa Bay defense honest, Quinn will be blitzed relentlessly and will be in deep trouble. 

Tampa’s Brian Griese had his second consecutive solid start in a 28-21 loss to St.  Louis. Griese had 286 yards passing, with two touchdowns and one interception. He is the third quarterback for Tampa Bay to start this year, after Brad Johnson and Chris Simms, but if he keeps up his good play, he could be the last.  

Griese’s job this week will be a lot easier if rookie Michael Clayton continues to play well. Clayton had 142 yards receiving against St. Louis. If the team can get the running game going with Michael Pittman and Mike Alstott, then Tampa should have more than enough to win this game by double digits.  

Even though the Buccaneers are only 1-5, they are still playing hard under Jon Gruden. The Tampa Bay fans are also always into the game and they will give a big boost of emotion to the team. The Bears were held without an offensive touchdown last week, and it could be the same on Sunday. Take Tampa Bay. 

Pick: Tampa Bay 

Seattle (-7) at Arizona 

Seattle (3-2) put up a good fight last week against the Patriots before finally succumbing 30-20 in Foxboro. Seattle has now lost two straight after opening the season 3-0.  The game proved costly in more ways than one, as defensive end Grant Wistrom is out four to six weeks with a cracked bone in his knee. 

Seattle also has problems at wide receiver. Koren Robinson reportedly faces a four-game suspension under terms of the NFL's substance-abuse policy. Bobby Engram is also questionable with a sprained ankle. The Seahawks have acquired the aging, Jerry Rice, but his impact will be minimal this week.  

Arizona is fully rested and a lot healthier after enjoying their bye-week. They are 1-4, but have been competitive in every game, except in a loss to New England. They have also become a dangerous team at home, where they have covered the spread in seven of their last nine contests, going back to last year.

Coach Dennis Green deserves a lot of credit for getting his team to believe that it can win each week. That is not easy for a franchise that has been downtrodden for so long. A lot of credit also has to go to second year quarterback, Josh McCown. McCown’s quarterback rating has been over 90 for the last three games.  

Seattle needs this win in order to keep up with St. Louis in the NFC West. However, any time a team is giving a touchdown on the road, they better be playing good football. Seattle is in a little bit of a tailspin, and now they face some injury concerns as well. Look for Arizona to make this a close game at home. 

Pick: Arizona 

Denver (-6) at Cincinnati 

Cincinnati is one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL so far this season. Last week, they dropped another loss on the road to Cleveland, 34-17, and now they stand at 1-4. That mark is really depressing for a team that had legitimate playoff aspirations after going 8-8 last year.  

Cincinnati coach, Marvin Lewis is feeling a lot of pressure to insert Jon Kitna back at quarterback. Second year player, Carson Palmer is one of the lowest rated quarterbacks in the league, after playing well in week one. Palmer has four touchdown passes and eight interceptions, which simply isn’t getting the job done. 

Denver (5-1) is flying high after a 31-3 drubbing over the arch-rivals, the Raiders in Oakland. Jake Plummer continues to be efficient at quarterback, but it is the defense that is really driving the bus. The Broncos are first in the league in yards allowed, and they held the Raiders to just 145 total yards on the day.  

Denver’s game plan for his game is to run Reuben Droughns until he drops. Droughns has come out of nowhere to put up Earl Campbell type numbers. He has rushed for 369 yards in the last two games since becoming the starter. Amazing, considering that he had 97 yards rushing in his first four seasons combined. 

The Cincinnati crowd should be into the game as it is Monday Night Football, but if the Bengals fall behind early, the rout could be on. Cincinnati has the worst run defense in the entire NFL, and there is no reason to believe the trend will stop against the Broncos. Denver continues their dominant play on the road here.  

Pick: Denver