Michael Robinson (VIP Sports) 

October 13, 2004 

This article was written for, and is the exclusive property of VIP Sports 

A promising start to last week was quickly turned upside down as Houston and the Jets turned from winners to losers late in their games. Suddenly a 3-1 record for the week was 1-3. The year to date record is 9-12. 

The first game was Houston getting 4 points at home from Minnesota. The Texans staged a furious rally to send the game into overtime at 28-28, meaning the only way to lose this game was a rare overtime touchdown. That is exactly what happened, as a Daunte Culpepper to Marcus Robinson 50 yard bomb gave the Vikings the win. 

The second game was the New York Jets giving 6.5 points to the Buffalo Bills.  It looked good midway through the 4th quarter with the Jets leading 13-0. The Bills then scored two touchdowns in three minutes to take the lead, but a Jets’ field goal with a minute left gave New York a 16-14 win, but not the cover.  

The third loss was Jacksonville giving 2.5 points, on the road to San Diego, and losing 34-21. The Jaguars actually gained more yards than San Diego, but lost the turnover battle 3-0. Quarterback Drew Brees continues to play well for the Chargers, who will now try to duplicate their home success on the road.  

The only win of the week was Indianapolis giving 9 points to Oakland. We predicted that the Colts would score at least 35 points in this game, and they got exactly 35. The Colts led 21-7 at halftime and cruised to a 35-14 win. Indianapolis has now won four straight games, and Oakland has lost 12 consecutive road games. 

Pittsburgh (+3) at Dallas 

Pittsburgh is 4-1 after another impressive home win, this time, 34-23 over Cleveland. The Steelers are now a perfect 3-0 at home. On the road so far this year, Pittsburgh is 1-1. They got blown out 30-13 at Baltimore, and had a 13-3 win over the woeful Dolphins, in a game played in torrential downpours.  

Rookie quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger has exceeded everyone’s expectations since taking over for an injured Tommy Maddox. Roethlisberger has won all three games that he has started, and shows poise beyond his years. His quarterback rating is remarkably the 6th best in the AFC conference. 

The Cowboys know the key to this game is stopping the Steelers’ running game with Duce Staley. Staley has gone over the 100 yard mark the last three weeks, and that allows Pittsburgh to limit Roethlisberger’s throws. If the Cowboys stop the run, then they will force the rookie to beat them through the air.

Dallas (2-2) has to get back on track offensively to get a win this week. In a 26-10 loss last week to the Giants, Vinny Testaverde only threw for 126 yards. That is after averaging almost 300 yards per game in their first three games. The Cowboys need a big day from Testaverde to offset a mediocre running attack. 

This game does not have the same cache as in the 1970’s, when these two teams were the best in football, but it is a solid match-up nonetheless. Both teams came into the season with playoff aspirations, and it looks like a reasonable goal for each. Dallas is the play here, as they are by far, the more desperate team.  

Pick: Dallas 

Green Bay (+2) at Detroit 

Lions’ coach, Steve Mariucci is a winner. He won at the college level, he won when he was coaching the 49ers, and he is now putting his imprint on this Detroit (3-1) team. Their 17-10 win over previously unbeaten Atlanta, puts them in a tie with Minnesota for the NFC North lead. Who would have figured? 

Wide receiver Roy Williams is questionable for this game with an ankle sprain, and he would be a huge loss. Running back Kevin Jones will likely miss this game, which means Artose Pinner will again get the start at running back. It does appear that cornerback Dre Bly will return after missing the past three games. 

Packers quarterback, Brett Favre was quoted during training camp as saying that this team was capable of making the Super Bowl. After a 48-27 blowout loss at home to Tennessee, that prediction isn’t looking too good. The Pack will now try to become the 10th team in NFL history to start 1-4 and make the playoffs. 

The Packers turnaround must start with their run defense. Their opponents are running roughshod over them ever since nose tackle, Grady Jackson went out of the lineup. Jackson will not be back for this game, but Detroit should not be able to hurt them too much as they are 29th in the league in rushing yards. 

This is a must win for the Packers if they want to stay in the playoff chase. The Packers have the talent for a long winning streak, they just need to start taking care of the ball and avoiding costly turnovers. Look for Brett Favre to have one of his Herculean efforts, and will the Packers to an important win on the road. 

Pick: Green Bay 

Washington (E) at Chicago 

The Redskins (1-4) were hoping for a big coaching upgrade when they jettisoned Steve Spurrier and brought in legend Joe Gibbs. Gibbs has been away from the NFL for over a decade, and it has showed. The Redskins are losing the turnover battle and committing too many penalties, both signs of poor coaching.  

The Washington offense has been painful, gaining only 107 total yards in a 17-10 home loss to Baltimore. Granted, the Ravens defense is one of the leagues best, but they could gain more yards than that calling a quarterback sneak every play. Quarterback, Mark Brunell will continue to start despite his struggles.  

The Bears are 1-3 but have played their opponents tough in every contest. Coach Lovie Smith has brought an aggressive style of defense, and he has improved the unit despite a rash of injuries. Brian Urlacher will return from a hamstring injury and cornerback Jerry Azumah should be healthy enough to play nickel back.

Chicago is coming off a bye-week which provided an opportunity for quarterback Jonathan Quinn to get work with the first team offense. Quinn is the starter now that Rex Grossman is out for the year, and he must keep the Redskins’ defense honest or they will just stack the line to stop running back, Thomas Jones. 

The only thing we know for certain about this game is this will not be the marquee match-up on the Fox network. The Over / Under for this contest is just 34, the lowest of all this weeks’ games by four points. This has all the makings of a defensive battle, and the Bears get the slight edge in front of the home crowd.

Pick: Chicago 

Seattle (+4) at New England 

This is the best game on the NFL schedule this week, but it would have been even better if Seattle (3-1) hadn’t blown a 17 point lead in a 33-27 overtime loss to St. Louis. Rams’ quarterback, Marc Bulger threw for 325 yards and three touchdowns, including a 52 yard strike to Shaun McDonald in the extra session. 

Seattle now needs to quickly put this loss behind them and concentrate on the World Champs. Before Sundays game, the Seattle defense had only allowed 4.5 points per game. Now that figure is 11.5, still the best in the league. Conversely, the Seattle offense is averaging 23 points per game, 4th in the NFC. 

After a 24-10 win over Miami, the Patriots (4-0) have now won 19 games in a row, the best in NFL history. In order to make it 20, they will need to turn up the offense. Tom Brady was held to just 76 yards passing vs. Miami, as he was missing three of his best receivers, Deion Branch, Troy Brown and Bethel Johnson.

It is not yet known which receivers will return this week, leaving David Givens and David Patten as the proven wide-outs. Without that receiver depth, the Patriots are forced to look to pound the ball more with Corey Dillon. Dillon has been a great pickup for the Patriots, averaging almost 105 yards rushing per game.  

This game marks the start of a tough stretch of games for the Patriots. After this, they have the Jets at home and Pittsburgh and St. Louis on the road. Seattle has the offense to score on any team in any stadium. Look for this to be a back and forth close game, with the game decided by a field goal. We will take the points.

Pick: Seattle