Michael Robinson (VIP Sports) 

October 6, 2004

This article was written for, and is the exclusive property of VIP Sports 

After going 3-1 last week, the football gods brought us back down to earth with a disappointing 1-3 mark this week. The year to date record is now 7-8, meaning a new winning streak will have to begin now. 

The first defeat was Carolina giving 3.5 points to Atlanta at home. The Falcons’ Michael Vick has struggled at times in learning their new offense. While Vick only threw for 148 yards, the rest of the Falcons team stepped up for a 27-10 win. Atlanta now has a two game lead over New Orleans in the NFC West.

The second loss was San Francisco getting 4 points at home against St. Louis, and losing 24-14. St. Louis had not run the ball well all year, but got 121 yards from Marshall Faulk. The thought was that the 49ers would put forth a good effort at home for Sunday Night Football, but they got outclassed by a superior team.  

The third loss was Baltimore giving 5 points at home to Kansas City. The Chiefs finally decided to play like the team that went 13-3 last year, dominating the vaunted Ravens defense in the air and on the ground. The 27-24 defeat was the Ravens’ first regular season home loss since September 28th of last year.  

The win of the week was Indianapolis giving 4 points at Jacksonville. The Jaguars had pulled out their first three wins in miracle fashion, but it was not meant to be against the best offensive team in the league. Peyton Manning threw for 220 yards and two touchdowns as the Colts won 24-17.

Oakland (+9) at Indianapolis 

The Colts are now 3-1 after dispatching the Jaguars, in Jacksonville, 24-17. The Colts’ defense turned in their best performance of the year, limiting Fred Taylor to just 68 yards on 21 carries. If they can continue to improve as a unit, the Colts will be as good as any team in the league, and that includes New England.  

Peyton Manning is quickly turning into the Dan Marino of his time. He is running a prolific offense and is probably the best quarterback in the game. The Colts’ offense is so dangerous because they have three top notch receivers, two good tight ends, and they can always hand the ball off to Edgerrin James if need be. 

The Raiders are coming off a disappointing loss to Houston 30-17. Oakland was favored to beat the Texans, but quarterback Kerry Collins had three interceptions and two lost fumbles. That basically decided the ball game and the Raiders now drop to 2-2, one game behind the Broncos in the AFC West. 

If Oakland is going to stay in this game, Collins needs to take care of the ball. Collins will also take his shots down the field, as the Raiders have the speed receivers to beat the Colts deep. Running back Tyrone Wheatley has an injured shoulder and may not play, but backup Amos Zereoue has looked good this year.  

Giving nine points to a talented team like Oakland does make you think twice, but it comes down to the numbers. The Colts are averaging 31 points per game, and put up 45 against Green Bay in their only home game this year. Indianapolis will be good for at least 35 points here, and the Raiders’ offense can’t keep up. 

Pick: Indianapolis 

Buffalo (+6.5) at NY Jets  

Buffalo (0-3) is coming off a spirited 31-17 loss to the Patriots, in a game that was a lot closer than the score indicates. Quarterback Drew Bledsoe was motivated to play his old team, and he made some great throws, but he coughed up a fumble late in the fourth quarter that sealed the victory for New England. 

The Bills are really hurting in the secondary. Cornerback Troy Vincent has a right knee injury and will miss at least two weeks. That presses nickle back, Terrance McGee into starting duty.  The Bills are already playing without strong safety, Lawyer Milloy, who has missed the entire season so far with an arm injury.   

Jets’ quarterback, Chad Pennington must be licking his chops at the thought of going against the Bills’ depleted secondary. Pennington only had 143 yards passing last week in a 17-9 win at Miami, but the Jets played conservative knowing that they didn’t need a lot of points to beat the Dolphins. 

The Jets’ offensive game plan always starts with running back Curtis Martin, and who can blame them? The ageless Martin has gone over the 100 yard mark in each game this year. Buffalo does have a pretty good run defense, but there is no reason to think that the Bills can hold him under that number at home.  

Clearly these are two teams going in opposite directions. The Jets are 3-0 for the first time since 2000, and they are looking like an upper echelon NFL team. The Bills are getting lambasted in the Buffalo media, and will be demoralized after blowing a winnable game against New England. Jets get a comfortable win. 

Pick: NY Jets 

Minnesota (-4) at Houston 

What a difference a couple of weeks made for the Texans. Two weeks ago, they were 0-2 and had losses against mediocre teams in San Diego and Detroit. Now they have reeled off consecutive wins against Kansas City and Oakland, and suddenly the entire state of Texas is dreaming about the NFL playoffs.  

Quarterback David Carr is the key to the Texans’ offense. He is maturing in his third NFL season, and if he plays mistake free football, Houston is likely to compete in every game. Running back, Domanick Davis is expected back this week, although backup Jonathon Wells excelled in Davis’ absence in the Raiders’ win.  

The Minnesota rushing attack has serious questions heading into this game. Michael Bennett re-injured his knee, and will not be back for another two to three weeks. Onterrio Smith has been great filling in for Bennett, but he will not play either do to a four game suspension from the league. 

Of course, when you have the passing game of the Vikings, you might not need to line up anyone in the backfield. Daunte Culpepper is throwing for 315 yards per game, but more importantly, has only one interception vs. eight touchdowns. The Texans haven’t faced anyone near his caliber this year. 

The Vikings are a scary offensive team that can score bunches of points on any team in this league. However, they lost on the road earlier this season to Philadelphia, which makes seven straight road losses going back to 2003. The Vikings will be fortunate to get a close win and a Houston upset is possible. 

Pick: Houston 

Jacksonville (-2.5) at San Diego   

San Diego evened up their record at 2-2 after a convincing 38-17 win over Tennessee. The Titans played without quarterback Steve McNair, but Billy Volek is a quality backup, and the Chargers still made it look easy. This has been an impressive start for a team that struggled through a 4-12 campaign last year. 

This game has one of the more intriguing matchups in the NFL this week; superstar running back, LaDainian Tomlinson, against a stingy Jaguars’ run defense. Tomlinson is 3rd in the league in rushing, and if he is able to get close to 100 yards, then San Diego has a chance to win this game. 

Jacksonville (3-1) is trying to rebound from their first loss of the season to the Colts, 24-17. Jacksonville had a chance to win the game, but they were not able to pull out another magical win. The Jaguars had won their first three games of the year by a total of eight points, and they were overdue for some bad breaks. 

One of the bright spots of the Jacksonville loss was the play of Byron Leftwich. Coach Jack Del Rio finally opened up the offense, and Leftwich responded with 318 yards passing, one touchdown and no interceptions. He also spread the ball around to eight different receivers. Leftwich’s previous high passing effort this year was just 147 yards. 

Jacksonville is going to need to continue throwing the ball this week if they want to win this game. You can only rely on your defense and running game so long. San Diego has some offensive firepower, especially at home, and Leftwich needs to continue what he started last week. Jacksonville wins a close one. 

Pick: Jacksonville