Michael Robinson (VIP Sports) 

September 29, 2004

This article was written for, and is the exclusive property of VIP Sports

Week three of the NFL season turned out to be our finest yet, with a 3-1 record. The year to date mark now stands at a respectable 6-5.  

The Philadelphia Eagles got things going right with a 30-13 win over previously unbeaten Detroit. The spread for this game jumped from 3.5 to 4.5 early in the week, signaling that the Eagles were initially undervalued in this contest.  That intuition proved correct, as the Eagles made the Lions look like the “Junior Varsity,” dominating the game from start to finish.

The second win was Houston getting eight points from Kansas City on the road. This was a back and forth contest that changed momentum with a Marcus Coleman 102 yard interception return for a touchdown. That kept the game close for Houston, who ultimately pulled out a 24-21 win in the fourth quarter. 

The third win of the week was Oakland giving three points to Tampa Bay. Oakland had all the motivation in this game, playing their old coach Jon Gruden, and it being Warren Sapp’s first game against his old teammates. The Raiders jumped all over Tampa, and the score was 30-6 after three quarters, with Oakland eventually winning 30-20. 

The only loss of the week was Miami giving one point to the Pittsburgh Steelers at home. The game was played at times in major downpours due to Hurricane Jeanne, and the Steelers were better able to deal with the conditions. They held on for a 13-3 win behind a 101 rushing effort from Duce Staley.  

St. Louis (-4) at San Francisco

St. Louis’ 28-25 overtime loss to New Orleans drops them to 1-2 for the year, their only win being a close contest at home against lowly Arizona. The Rams continue to put up gaudy pass numbers behind quarterback Marc Bulger, but running back Marshall Faulk continues to be underutilized in the offense. 

Rams’ coach, Mike Martz is being criticized for a squib kick that allowed the Saints to get into field goal range and tie the game in regulation. That seems a little unfair, but the fact that the Rams average almost 10 penalties per game, and have six turnovers this year to their opponents none, shows an undisciplined team.  

San Francisco (0-3) needs to get Kevan Barlow untracked if they are to win this game. Barlow only had 22 yards, in a 34-0 loss to Seattle, after averaging 95 yards in his first two games. The Rams’ rush defense is poor, and the more the 49ers can control the clock, the less time Bulger and company will have on the field.   

Of course, the running game will improve if the 49ers can get anything out of the quarterback position. Ken Dorsey may have to fill in again for Tim Rattay, who is recovering from a separated shoulder. Either 49ers signal caller will try to pick on a Rams’ secondary that has suffered more than their share of injuries. 

When taking a step back to look at this game, it does seem rather risky to pick a team that just got smoked 34-0. Seattle however, might be the best home team in the NFL, and they will make a lot teams playing there look bad. St. Louis is struggling as well, and San Fran should make this a close game. We’ll take the points.  

Pick: San Francisco 

Atlanta (+3.5) at Carolina 

Atlanta is 3-0 but they have been the beneficiary of a favorable schedule. They have already played two of the worst teams in the league, Arizona and San Francisco, games that they won by a total of five points. That kind of effort will not get it done against a good Panthers team on the road.  

Quarterback Michael Vick is still dangerous with his arm and his legs, but he has struggled in their new West Coast offense, Where the Falcons have been strong is on run defense, they are only giving up 61 yards per game on the ground, while they are rushing for 177 yards per contest.

The defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers have had an up and down year, and their season is only two games old! The Panthers lost their opening game at home to Green Bay on Monday Night Football. In that game, they lost offensive stars, Steve Smith and Stephen Davis to extended injuries.  

Luckily for Carolina, they are blessed with some depth at wide receiver and running back. DeShaun Foster had 174 yards rushing in a week two win over Kansas City, and he will be a giant test for the Falcons’ defense. Rookie Keary Colbert is a big target who fills in for Smith at wide-out. 

It is only week four of the season, but already this is a big division game in the NFC South. If Atlanta wins here, they are 4-0 with a 2.5 game lead over the Panthers. They would also hold the tie-breaker at this point. Look for Carolina to defend home turf, as the Falcons are exposed in their toughest game to date.  

Pick: Carolina 

Indianapolis (-4) at Jacksonville 

The Colts’ 45-31 win last Sunday over Green Bay was one for the record books. Peyton Manning threw for 393 yards and five touchdowns, including 247 yards and three touchdowns in the first quarter alone. That sounds more like an Arena League game than the National Football League. 

Believe it or not, Indianapolis’ (2-1) defense was almost as bad as Green Bays. Packers’ quarterback, Brett Favre kept them in the ballgame by throwing for 358 yards and four touchdowns. Fortunately, the Colts defense gets to play an anemic Jaguars’ offense who have only scored 35 total points in their first three games.  

It is hard to criticize a Jacksonville team that has gone 3-0 and already has road wins at Buffalo and Tennessee, and a home win over a good Broncos squad. The Jacksonville game plan is simple, keep the score close and then pull it out in the 4th quarter with timely scoring and tough defense. 

The Jaguars’ opponents are averaging more than 64 yards of total offense than they are. Quarterback, Byron Leftwich has all the talent in the world, but the Jaguars’ offense is so conservative that he is only averaging 130 yards passing per game. That will not be suffice against the Colts’ juggernaut offense. 

Jacksonville is a scrappy team that plays with a lot of emotion, especially at home. However, the Colts are averaging 30 points per games, and have not scored less than 17 points in a game in over a year. The Jaguars will be able to slow down Indianapolis somewhat, but the Colts have too much offense for them.

Pick: Indianapolis 

Kansas City (+5) at Baltimore   

The Kansas City Chiefs’ heartbreaking 24-21 home loss to Houston drops them to 0-3. The Chiefs know that only three teams have started out 0-3 and made it to the playoffs. Remember, this is a team that only lost three regular season games all last year and had Super Bowl dreams. Clearly this is a demoralized bunch.

The Chiefs are a team that has survived on its offense the past few seasons. Last year the Chiefs had the second ranked offense in the league, and the fourth lowest ranked defense. Now the offense has suddenly turned into a mediocre group, and the defense is still “Swiss Cheese.” That is a bad combination.  

Baltimore (2-1) is heading in the opposite direction after a 23-9 road win at Cincinnati. Running back, Jamal Lewis had 186 yards rushing in the game. Last year, Lewis had set the NFL single-game rushing record with 295 yards against Cleveland. He must be thinking 300 going against the Chiefs’ front seven. 

The only thing keeping the Ravens from total dominance is their passing offense. Quarterback Kyle Boller is not a quarterback that is going to win games with his arm, especially with tight end Todd Heap and receiver Travis Taylor out of the lineup. Kevin Johnson and Randy Hymes are now Boller’s main targets. 

Baltimore has won seven straight regular season games at home, including a 30-13 drubbing of Pittsburgh earlier this year. The Ravens always have a suffocating defense, but they will play with an extra chip on their shoulder at home on Monday Night Football. Baltimore wins this game by double digits. 

Pick: Baltimore