Michael Robinson (VIP Sports) 

December 15, 2004 

This article was written for, and is the exclusive property of VIP Sports

Week 14 selections finished with a 2-2 record after we won a game we could have lost (San Diego) and lost a game we could have won (NY Jets). The year to date record is now 26-31.

The first win was Carolina giving 6.5 points at home to St. Louis. The Rams were missing quarterback Marc Bulger, and running backs Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson due to injury. The Panthers had also won four straight heading into this game. Chris Chandler subbed in for Bulger and was just awful in throwing six interceptions, and Carolina walked away with a 20-7 victory.

The second win was San Diego giving 5 points at home to Tampa Bay. San Diego has been dominant at home all year, and Tampa has been a poor road team. This was a very competitive game though, and it came down to a couple of turnovers in the 4th quarter. The deciding one was the Chargers’ Donnie Edwards interception return for a touchdown, and San Diego held on, 31-24.

The first loss was Chicago getting 7.5 points at Jacksonville. The Bears offense had come alive the previous week against Minnesota, but they were woeful against Jacksonville. It was thought that the Bears’ defense could keep this game within seven points, as the Jaguars had not won a game all year by more than six. This game turned out to be the exception as Jacksonville rolled to a 22-3 win.

The second loss was the Jets getting 5.5 points at Pittsburgh. It was predicted that this would be a low scoring defensive battle, and the score was 10-6 Pittsburgh with under four minutes remaining in the game. The Steelers iced the game however with a 12 yard Jerome Bettis touchdown run, and Pittsburgh unfortunately got the win and the cover, 17-6.

Pittsburgh (-10) at NY Giants

It is hard to believe that the NY Giants (5-8) were actually 4-1 earlier in the year, but that is how far this team has fallen. Rookie quarterback, Eli Manning replaced Kurt Warner four games ago, and he has struggled mightily, throwing for only one touchdown and six interceptions. Manning will again get the start this week.

Unfortunately for New York, it isn’t just the quarterback who has struggled. The offensive line can’t pass protect for Manning and they are not opening up any holes for running back, Tiki Barber. Barber started the season on fire, but he will not be able to run this week against the Pittsburgh defense.

Pittsburgh (12-1) has played terrific football ever since their rookie quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger was inserted in the starting lineup. Critics are quick to point out that Roethlisberger is starting to hit the “rookie wall” but he had a huge game against Jacksonville just two weeks ago.

The Steelers will not need much help from their quarterback to win this game. Running backs, Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis should each get plenty of carries, and yards, against the Giants poor run defense. If the Giants stack the line of scrimmage too often, Roethlisberger is capable of hitting big plays down the field.

This is a big point spread to give, especially on the road, but that is what happens when a team with an 11 game winning streak is facing a team with a six game losing streak. The Over / Under in this game is only 34, meaning that there will not be a lot of scoring, but the result should still be a two touchdown margin.

Pick: Pittsburgh
 

Carolina (+3.5) at Atlanta

Carolina’s 20-7 win over St. Louis last week means that they have now won five straight games, and they would make the playoffs if the season ended today. That is incredible for a team that started off the year at 1-7, and has had as many injuries as any team in the NFL.

The Panthers’ turnaround has been keyed by the power running game supplied by Nick Goings. Goings ran for 108 yards against the Rams, and he has gone over 100 yards in four straight games. Carolina should have success this week against the interior of the Falcons’ line.

Atlanta rebounded from a 27-0 loss to Tampa two weeks ago, to equally demolish Oakland 35-10 last week. Quarterback, Michael Vick again threw for less than 150 yards, but it has been the running game and defense that has won games all year for Atlanta, and this game was no exception.

Atlanta suffered a blow this week when it was disclosed that fullback Justin Griffith is gone for the year with a broken ankle. Griffith is a very good blocker and a key to the Falcons’ running game. Atlanta will also be without power runner, T.J. Duckett for this game, forcing Warrick Dunn into full time action.

Atlanta may have already won the NFC South division, but they still need to keep winning to clinch a first round bye in the playoffs. Atlanta is 6-1 at home this year, but three of those wins have been by three points or less. This is a Saturday night game, and Atlanta is going to have a big home field advantage, but the Panthers will keep this game within a field goal.

Pick: Carolina
 

Buffalo (E) at Cincinnati

Cincinnati (6-7) may have lost 35-28 to New England last week, but they put a scare into the defending champs. The Bengals have now averaged 38 points in their last three games. Cincinnati is close to being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but this team will play hard regardless.

Quarterback, Carson Palmer is questionable for this game with an ACL injury in his left knee. There was no damage on the MRI, putting his chances at 50-50. If Palmer can’t go, Cincinnati will turn to, perhaps, the best backup in the NFL in Jon Kitna. Kitna played well subbing in against New England.

The Bills 37-7 defeat of the Browns puts them at 7-6, and gives them legitimate hope for a playoff spot. In addition to beating the Bengals, the Bills must win at San Francisco and home against Pittsburgh. That would put them at 10-6, and they will still need the teams ahead of them to lose some games.

For Buffalo to win this game, running back Willis McGahee needs to be up around 100 yards, and quarterback, Drew Bledsoe must not throw any costly interceptions. The Bills defense has been one of the best in the NFL all year, and now veteran Troy Vincent has returned from injury and is playing safety.

Both teams are hot with Buffalo winning six of seven, and the Bengals four of six. In a closely contested game, we will take the team with the far superior defense, and who still has a shot at the playoffs. The Bills defense slows down the Cincinnati offense enough for a field goal win on the road.

Pick: Buffalo
 

Baltimore (+7.5) at Indianapolis

The Colts are 10-3 after a 23-14 win over the Texans in Houston. Peyton Manning threw for two more touchdown passes, and that gives him 44 on the year. He needs only two more to tie Dan Marino’s 1984 record for most touchdowns in a season, and he would love to do it in front of the home crowd on Sunday Night.

The Colts will start throwing the ball early in this game, and worry about running it with Edgerrin James later. The Baltimore defense is still one of the best in the NFL, but teams have had success against them spreading the field, which helps neutralize the Ravens’ speed on defense.

Baltimore (8-5) needs this game badly if they want to keep pace with Denver for the last playoff spot in the AFC. The Ravens play at Pittsburgh next week which is another game in which they will be a heavy underdog. Baltimore really hurt their playoff chances with a loss at home to Cincinnati two weeks ago.

The Colts defense is one of the leagues worst in terms of yards allowed, but they are a respectable 16th in points allowed. Running back, Jamal Lewis will play in this game, which will help, but they really need quarterback, Kyle Boller to step up and have a big game on the road.

The Ravens are going to have to score in the 20’s if they want to stay in this game. Indianapolis leads the NFL in scoring at almost 35 points per game, and they should be good for 25-30 here. The Ravens cornerbacks are known for tight coverage, but they give up their share of big plays. Indy wins by double digits.

Pick: Indianapolis