Michael Robinson (VIP Sports)
December 8, 2004
This article was written for, and is the exclusive property of VIP Sports
Watching Week 13’s selections was the equivalent of getting continually punched in the stomach. Two of the games lost big leads, and the other two were, essentially, not even close. That produced an 0-4 record for the week, a first for this column in its three years of existence. The year to date record is now 24-29.
The first loss was Baltimore giving seven points at home to Cincinnati. The Ravens badly needed this win for their playoff chances, and it was thought they would rebound from their prior blowout loss to New England. It all looked good with a 20-3 fourth quarter lead, but Cincinnati exploded for 24 points in the quarter to shock Baltimore, 27-26.
The second loss was Minnesota giving seven points to Chicago in the Windy City. Minnesota is always a risk playing outside, but it was thought that the return of Randy Moss would provide enough offense against a previously anemic Bear’s offense. Chicago started their fourth quarterback of the year in Chad Hutchinson, and he ignited the offense for a relatively easy 24-14 win.
The third loss was Green Bay getting six points at Philadelphia. Green Bay was playing great football heading into the game, winners of six straight, but the Eagles showed they are clearly the best team in the NFC. Donovan McNabb threw for 464 yards and five touchdowns and the Packers got embarrassed, 47-17.
The final loss of the week was Oakland, even at home to Kansas City. Oakland had a 20-10 halftime lead, but Kansas City dominated the second half. The game was tied at 27 with two minutes left in the 4th quarter, but a 70 yard bomb from Trent Green to Eddie Kennison gave the Chiefs a 34-27 victory.
Chicago (+7.5) at Jacksonville
Jacksonville (6-6) is coming off a heartbreaking 17-16 loss to Pittsburgh, in a game in which they dominated the time of possession. The loss puts them a game back of Denver and Baltimore for the last Wild Card spot. Realistically, the Jaguars need to win their four remaining games to have any shot at the second season.
Quarterback, Byron Leftwich has done a nice job the last two weeks after returning from an injury. Leftwich threw for 235 yards against Minnesota and 268 yards against the Steelers. The problem for Jacksonville is that they are not scoring touchdowns, and are last in the NFL in red zone efficiency.
The Bears put an end to a two game losing streak last week with a 24-10 win over Minnesota in Chicago. Quarterback, Chad Hutchinson made an impressive debut with three touchdown passes. Hutchinson was able to do what Jonathan Quinn and Craig Krenzel could not, namely stretch the field vertically.
Despite their under .500 record, the Bears now find themselves only one game out the NFC Wild Card. The Bears need a win this week though, and their best chance is to get their running game going, and to keep it close in the 4th quarter. They do not want to depend on a big day from Hutchinson to win this game.
These are two of the lowest scoring teams in the NFL, with each averaging a little over 16 points per game. That fact is reflected in the Over / Under number of just 34 points. Jacksonville has not won a game all year by more than six points, and that trend will continue this week as Chicago makes this a close one.
Pick: Chicago
St. Louis (+6.5) at Carolina
St. Louis is now 6-6 after an unexciting 16-6 victory over San Francisco. Good teams should be blowing out the 1-11 49ers, especially at home, but the Rams are struggling on both sides of the ball. Remarkably, the win does move the Rams into a first place tie with Seattle in the NFC West division.
A huge factor for this game is injuries. Quarterback, Marc Bulger sprained his right shoulder against San Francisco and is out for this game. Wiley veteran, Chris Chandler will start in his place. Running backs Stephen Jackson and Marshall Faulk might also have to sit, making Arlen Harris the featured runner.
Carolina (5-7) is one of the best stories in the NFL this season. The defending NFC champions started off the season 1-7 due to poor play and devastating injuries. They have now won four straight games after last weeks 32-21 win at New Orleans, and they now have a realistic shot at making the playoffs.
Carolina should have success running the ball this weak. The Rams’ run defense is below average and unheralded running back, Nick Goings has been over 100 yards the last three weeks. Quarterback, Jake Delhomme has been on fire the last five weeks, throwing for 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
When you look closer at Carolina’s winning streak, you see that three of the wins were against San Francisco, Arizona, and New Orleans, who have a combined record of 9-27. That being said, the Panthers are playing with a lot of emotion right now, and should get a touchdown win over a depleted Rams squad.
Pick: Carolina
NY Jets (+5.5) at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh (11-1) continued their torrid play with a 17-16 win at Jacksonville on Sunday Night. Steelers quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger engineered a brilliant two minute drive for the win. The rookie continues to confound his doubters with the second highest quarterback rating in the AFC behind Peyton Manning.
The Steelers continue to win even with some key injuries. Wide Receiver, Plaxico Burress is questionable with a hamstring injury. Running back, Duce Staley played last week after coming back from his own hamstring injury, but he looked less than 100%. Look for Jerome Bettis to get more carries this week.
The Jets (9-3) got back quarterback Chad Pennington, and responded with an easy 29-7 win over Houston. Pennington missed three games with a shoulder injury, but you would never know it from his 20-27 passing effort and two touchdowns. He will now try to continue his success against an aggressive Steelers’ defense.
The Jets have their own injury concerns. Defensive end John Abraham will miss this game with a sprained knee ligament, and his 9.5 sacks will be sorely missed. Look for the Jets defense to blitz less without Abraham, preferring to play a conservative defense and not give up many big plays to the Steelers.
These two teams are mirror images of one another. They have two of the top ranked defenses in the AFC, and they each have two running backs that can carry the load. Pittsburgh is the better all around team and they are at home, but look for the Jets to keep this game within the point spread in a low scoring contest.
Pick: NY Jets
Tampa Bay (+5) at San Diego
Tampa Bay (5-7) played its most complete game of the season in last weeks 27-0 dismantling of Atlanta. The Buccaneers’ defense made Falcons’ quarterback Michael Vick look downright pedestrian, holding him to 115 yards passing, two interceptions, and two forced fumbles.
The key for Tampa Bay is to try to duplicate their home success on the road, where they are only 1-5. They did play decently in their last two road games in Atlanta and Carolina. However, they still lost both of those games by ten and seven points respectively, running out of gas in the fourth quarter each time.
San Diego played its biggest game in years last week, in a 20-17 win over Denver. The win puts them two games up on Denver in the AFC West. They also own the tie-breaker, which means that two more wins will seal the division. That is big news, as the Chargers have not made the playoffs since 1995.
You could make the case that this could be a letdown game for San Diego after their big win over Denver, but that is not likely. The Chargers have won their last five games at home, averaging over 35 points, with an 18 point average margin of victory. Simply put, they are steamrolling over their opponents at home.
Tampa Bay is a tough team both offensively and defensively. Tampa Bay is going to have chances to score in the red-zone, but they have to score touchdowns. If Tampa has to settle for field goals, San Diego has too much offensive firepower, and will win this game by double digits. That is what is being predicted here.
Pick: San Diego |
