Michael Robinson (VIP Sports) 

December 1, 2004 

This article was written for, and is the exclusive property of VIP Sports 

Week 12 marked the second consecutive week with a 3-1 record. That brings the year to date record almost back to .500, at 24-25. With five weeks to go in the regular season, and four more weeks of the playoffs, there is plenty of time to keep up the momentum.

The first win last week was Dallas giving 3.5 points to Chicago on Thanksgiving Day. Rookie quarterback, Drew Henson got the start, but Coach Bill Parcells pulled him at halftime with the score tied, 7-7.  Quarterback, Vinny Testaverde did not do much better than Henson initially, but he led two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to give the Cowboys a 21-7 win.  

The second win was the Bengals giving 6 points to Cleveland, in Cincinnati. This game turned out to be the second highest scoring game in NFL history with Cincinnati winning 58-48. The teams combined for nine touchdown passes, and 966 yards of total offense. Cleveland had the cover with under two minutes left, but Kelly Holcomb threw a 31 yard interception return for a touchdown to end the scoring.  

The third win was Miami getting 1 point at San Francisco. Basically, this was the battle for the number one pick in the draft, and the 49ers laid claim to it with a 24-17 loss to Miami. San Francisco showed why they are the worst team in the league with five fumbles in the fourth quarter. Quarterback, AJ Feeley had two touchdown passes for Miami, despite dislocating his finger in the first quarter. 

The only loss of the week was Arizona getting three points at home against the Jets. Arizona had played very well at home with wins over New Orleans, Seattle and the New York Giants. It was thought that they could keep this game close against a Jets team that is struggling offensively without quarterback, Chad Pennington.  It was the Arizona quarterbacks who struggled the most however, and the Jets prevailed 13-3.

Cincinnati (+7) at Baltimore 

Cincinnati (5-6) is coming off their 58-48 win over Cleveland, and they are not sure whether to be really happy about their offense, or really depressed about their defense. Running back, Rudi Johnson tore through the Browns defense, but he will find the going much tougher against the Ravens playing at home.  

If Cincinnati has any hope of winning this game, quarterback Carson Palmer needs to have an interception free game. Palmer has six interceptions in his last three games, and his 16 on the year are more than any other quarterback in the league. Baltimore’s defense is also one of the league leaders in causing picks.  

Baltimore is now 7-4 after a 24-3 loss to New England in a game played in the rain and mud. The Ravens are usually the team that is more physical, but the Patriots ran the ball down their throat in the second half.  Baltimore is now tied with Denver for the last Wild Card spot in the AFC conference.  

One positive aspect to this game is the health of the Ravens. Jonathan Ogden is back on the field, and even if he is less than 100%, he is still better than almost any other left tackle in the league. Running back, Jamal Lewis, and tight end, Todd Heap could also return this week after suffering from sprained ankles.  

Cincinnati is still mathematically alive for the playoffs, but they are a big long shot. Baltimore will be the hungrier team, knowing this is a game that they need to win. Baltimore is 4-1 at home, straight up and ATS. Cincinnati is 1-4 on the road, straight up and ATS. Look for those trends to continue as Baltimore wins big. 

Pick: Baltimore

Minnesota (-7) at Chicago 

Chicago’s 21-7 loss to Dallas drops their record to 4-7, and marked a new low in their offensive output, with just 140 total yards. Chicago’s offense is the lowest in the NFL in terms of yardage. In their last three games, they have only scored one offensive touchdown, while their defense has scored three touchdowns.  

To make matters worse, the Bears are down to their fourth string quarterback in Chad Hutchinson. Rex Grossman, Craig Krenzel, and Jonathan Quinn have all come and gone due to injury and poor performance. Veteran Jeff George was just signed to be the backup, and he hasn’t taken an NFL snap in three years. 

Minnesota might only be 7-4, but they are 5-1 in games in which Randy Moss has played. Moss is so valuable to the team because defenses usually have to devote two men to him. That leaves one-on-one coverage for the other Vikings’ receivers, and opens up the middle for tight end Jermaine Wiggins. 

The Vikings running game has been turned over to Onterrio Smith. The Vikings have the deepest backfield in the league with Michael Bennett, Mewelde Moore and Moe Williams all capable of carrying the load. Smith averages 4.5 yards per carry, and he is their best option against a poor Bears rushing defense.  

There is always risk selecting Minnesota in a game outside and on grass. The weather in Chicago in December is always a factor, and this week’s forecast calls for temperatures in the 40’s with a few showers. The Vikings are averaging over 26 points per game though, and they will score enough to win by double digits.

Pick: Minnesota

Kansas City (E) at Oakland 

Kansas City is now 3-8 after a 34-31 loss at home to the San Diego Chargers. The Chiefs’ offense continues to put points on the board, but the defense has allowed at least 27 points in each of their last five games. This is most disheartening for a team that went 13-3 last year, and had Super Bowl aspirations this year. 

Kansas City has a lot of injury concerns for this game. Quarterback, Trent Green underwent X-rays on his sore ribs, but he has made 59 consecutive starts and he should be on the field on Sunday. Running back, Priest Holmes is still recovering from a knee injury and he is doubtful for this contest.  

Oakland’s 4-7 record is not much better than Kansas City’s, but they have played well in their last three games.  In last Sunday nights 25-24 win in Denver, Oakland showed a lot of heart by battling the Broncos in the snow. Oakland has no shot at the playoffs, but they are playing like a team that desperately wants to win. 

The Raiders turnaround begins with the improved play of, Kerry Collins. Collins has averaged 265 yards passing in the last three games with five touchdowns. Collins and his fleet of young wide receivers should have a field day against a porous Chiefs’ pass defense.  Collins does need to limit his interceptions though. 

This is the first meeting between these two teams, and they meet again in Kansas City on Christmas Day. Oakland running back, Tyrone Wheatly is questionable with a hamstring injury, with Justin Fargas and Amos Zereoue as his backups. Look for Oakland’s defense to slow down the Chiefs enough for a touchdown win. 

Pick: Oakland

Green Bay (+6) at Philadelphia

Green Bay (7-4) is quietly one of the hottest teams in the league. While New England, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia get most of the headlines, the Packers have a six game winning streak. Their latest win was a 45-17 throttling of St. Louis. Najeh Davenport subbed in for Ahman Green and rushed for 178 yards. 

Green is suffering from a rib injury, but chances are that he will play in this game, giving the Packers a one-two running punch. Green Bay is 3rd in the NFC in rushing offense, and Philadelphia is 8th in the NFC in rushing yards allowed. The Packers need to run the ball in order to set up the play action pass for Brett Favre. 

Philadelphia is 10-1 on the year, and 8-3 against the spread. At home, they are a perfect 5-0 and 4-1 ATS. The Eagles offense is of course, led by the terrific tandem of Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens. Owens might be the leagues’ top receiver, although he has only averaged 42 yards receiving in the last two games.  

The Eagles defense is a lot like New England’s, in that they give up yardage but not a lot of points. Philadelphia is only allowing 14.9 points per game, the best in the NFC. Green Bay however, is the most potent offense that this team has faced, since a 27-16 win over Minnesota in the second week of the season.  

The last time these two teams met was in last years playoffs. In that game, Favre threw a costly interception that led to the Eagles’ game winning field goal in overtime. That uncharacteristic play by Favre still haunts him, and he will atone for that on Sunday. Packers cover the spread and might just win the game outright.

Pick: Green Bay