Michael Robinson (VIP Sports) 

November 24, 2004 

This article was written for, and is the exclusive property of VIP Sports 

Week 12 marks one of the most sacred days of the NFL football season, Thanksgiving. While neither game on the docket is a great match up on paper, you still get to watch football all day! Hopefully, last weeks picks started a trend that will catapult us over the .500 mark. The 3-1 mark puts the year to date record at 21-24.    

The first win last week was the New York Jets even at Cleveland. Both offenses are really struggling, the Jets because they lost quarterback Chad Pennington, and Cleveland because they are just plain bad. Cleveland had a 7-0 lead and a chance to go up 10-0 in the 4th quarter, but they missed an easy field goal and the Jets came back for a 10-7 win. 

The second win was Atlanta giving 2.5 points to the New York Giants. This was the NFL debut for the Giants’ Eli Manning, and it was thought he would struggle against a good Falcons’ pass rush. Atlanta jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but the Giants cut it to 14-10 behind some improved play from Manning in the second half. Atlanta was able to hold on though, as they improved to 8-2 on the season.  

The third win was New England giving three points at Kansas City. The Patriots’ secondary is depleted due to injuries to Ty Law and Tyrone Poole, and the Chiefs’ Trent Green took advantage of that with 381 yards passing.  New England however, was able to keep Kansas City out of the end zone, for the most part, and they won an exciting game, 27-19.  

The only loss of the week was Seattle giving 10 points to Miami. Seahawks quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck was a surprise scratch for this game which left Trent Dilfer as the starting signal caller. Dilfer struggled on the day with two interceptions, and Seattle needed a last minute interception return for a touchdown in order to pull off a 24-17 victory.

Chicago (+3.5) at Dallas 

This is the second Thanksgiving Day game, the first being Indianapolis (-8) at Detroit. Chicago (4-6) is trying to rebound from a 41-10 thumping from the Indianapolis Colts. The Bears’ pass defense has been pretty good this year, but Colts’ quarterback, Peyton Manning torched them for four touchdown passes. 

The Bears will continue to start rookie quarterback, Craig Krenzel despite his two interceptions, two touchdown performance against the Colts. In four starts, Krenzel has six interceptions, six fumbles and only three touchdowns. Those kind of numbers will not allow you to start in the NFL for very long. 

Dallas (3-7) continued its downward spiral with a 30-10 beating by Baltimore. Drew Henson made his NFL debut in the fourth quarter of the game and was 6-6 for 47 yards and one touchdown. Starter, Vinny Testaverde is still feeling the effects of a sore shoulder and back, so Henson will get his first NFL start. 

Since Henson is the starter, it will be more imperative for Dallas to get the running game going. Rookie Julius Jones made his return from a shoulder injury and rushed for 81 yards on 30 carries. The Chicago run defense has been below average, and if Jones can get going, it will provide a huge spark to the offense.  

Chicago is a strange team in that they have played better on the road, going 3-2 overall, and 4-1 against the spread. Dallas has been mediocre at home, going 2-3 straight up and ATS. Still, Dallas will have a boisterous home crowd this week, and they are overdue for a win. Dallas wins by a touchdown.  

Pick: Dallas

Cleveland (+6) at Cincinnati 

The Cleveland Browns (3-7) are a team in turmoil. It is rumored that coach Butch Davis was almost fired after their 10-7 loss to the Jets. Davis will coach the team this week, but there is a good chance that this will be his final week if they lose this game. That is a big distraction for the team heading into this game. 

The reason for Davis’ firing is simple. The offense is one of the worst in the league, and the defense is mediocre. The Browns have had a lot of injuries, but the team just isn’t heading in the right direction after four years at the helm. Even his quarterback, Jeff Garcia, has publicly questioned his coaching. 

Cincinnati is only 4-6 after a 19-14 loss to Pittsburgh, but they had won three out of four before the Steelers game. They also had a great chance at knocking off the 9-1 Steelers. Coach Marvin Lewis is not giving up on the season knowing that his team almost made the playoffs last year, after starting off the season 1-4.  

The Bengals have been especially aggressive at home. Before the Steelers game, they had beaten Denver and Dallas by a combined score of 49-13. Cincinnati will focus on shutting down the Browns’ duel rushing attack of Lee Suggs and William Brown, forcing the Browns to win with an average passing game. 

These are two teams going in opposite directions even though their records are only one game apart. The Browns know their coach is a short timer, while the Bengals have a leader in Lewis that everyone has the utmost confidence in. The Bengals continue their solid play at home with a touchdown win here.  

Pick: Cincinnati

NY Jets (-3) at Arizona 

The Jets improved to 7-3 last week with a very ugly win over Cleveland, 17-10. The win ended a two game losing streak and kept them in the thick of the playoff chase. Backup quarterback, Quincy Carter, only threw for 116 yards, but he did help engineer the winning drive in the 4th quarter. 

To win this week against a stingy Cardinals defense at home, Carter and the Jets must be more explosive on offense, and that means getting Santana Moss more involved. Curtis Martin is probable this week with a bruised knee, but if he is less than 100%, they can turn to one of the NFL’s best backups, LaMont Jordan.

The Cardinals (4-6) are coming off a 35-10 shellacking at the hands of Carolina. They are now 1-5 on the road. At home, this team has been downright impressive under Coach Dennis Green. They are 3-1, with wins over the Seahawks and the Giants, and their only home loss was against the World Champion Patriots.  

Arizona will start backup Shaun King in this game. King replaced the inconsistent Josh McCown for the Carolina game. King did throw for 343 yards in that game, but was picked off three times. If King doesn’t turn the ball over against the Jets, then Arizona should be able to put some decent points on the board. 

A 4-6 record might not be good for most franchises, but for the Cardinals, it is an achievement. The Cardinals have only had one winning season in the 16 years they have been in Arizona. With four games left at home, they can realistically get to the .500 mark. It starts this week with a win over the Jets. 

Pick: NY Jets

Miami (+1) at San Francisco 

This game could be the battle for the number one pick in the draft, as both teams are 1-9, and no other team in the NFL is worse than 3-7. This has been said earlier this season, but San Francisco might have finally reached their low point last week in a 35-3 loss at Tampa Bay, amassing just 197 yards of total offense.  

The 49ers are going to have to run the ball to win this game. San Francisco quarterback, Tim Rattay will not have much luck against a strong Dolphins’ secondary, so they need to take advantage of injuries on the Dolphins front seven. The problem is that running back, Kevan Barlow is having a terrible year. 

Miami’s 24-17 loss to Seattle was heartbreaking in the fact that they played good enough to win. The defense in particular played well, limiting Seattle’s pass offense to just 177 yards. Linebacker Zach Thomas will miss this game, meaning that 7th round pick, Derrick Pope will start in his absence.  

Dolphins’ quarterback, A.J Feeley won the respect of his teammates by playing with an injured hip last week. Feeley says he will be ready to play this week, but that will not necessarily be a good thing unless he cuts down on his turnovers. Jay Fiedler is out with a neck injury, so Sage Rosenfels is the backup. 

This is a very unusual week for the Dolphins in that they didn’t return to Miami after the Seattle game. Instead, they went right to San Francisco to start preparing for this game. The Dolphins may be tired from their two week road trip, but they are the better team at this point, and they get the win on Sunday.  

Pick: Miami