Michael Robinson (VIP Sports)

November 17, 2004 

This article was written for, and is the exclusive property of VIP Sports 

Week 10 picks ended up being the second consecutive week of treading water. The 2-2 mark puts the year to date record at 18-23. This is the first week where there are no byes since week two, which means there are now 16 games to choose from as opposed to 14.  

The first win was New England giving eight points to Buffalo, and blowing them out, 29-6. Buffalo had won three out of four games coming in to New England, but those were all at home. The Bills have a lot of problems at Gillette Stadium, especially quarterback Drew Bledsoe, who looks absolutely lost there. That trend continued as Bledsoe had only 76 yards passing on the night, with three interceptions.  

The second win was Baltimore giving two points to the New York Jets. The Jets were missing quarterback Chad Pennington, but got a solid game from backup Quincy Carter. The Jets had a chance to win the game in regulation, but they had to settle for a field goal to send it into overtime, before ultimately losing 20-17.

The first loss was Cleveland getting four points at home against Pittsburgh. This was a classic trap game for Pittsburgh, who were coming off two big home wins against New England and Philadelphia. However, four Cleveland turnovers ruined any chance to keep this game close, and the Steelers cruised to a 24-10 win. 

The second loss was the Redskins giving three points to Cincinnati in Washington. The Redskins’ passing offense struggled as expected, even after Patrick Ramsey replaced Mark Brunell. What was more surprising was that the Bengals scored 17 first half points against a good defense. Washington made a game of it late in the fourth quarter, but fell short 17-10, giving the Bengals their first road win of the year.

NY Jets (E) at Cleveland 

The Browns’ (3-6) 24-10 loss last week to Pittsburgh might have put the death knell on their playoff hopes. The talk in Cleveland this week is centered on whether coach Butch Davis will keep his job next year. It will be a challenge for Davis to keep his team focused, while worrying about his job at the same time.  

Quarterback, Jeff Garcia was replaced by Kelly Holcombe in the Pittsburgh loss, but he will be back in the starting lineup this week. What would really help Garcia is if receiver, Andre Davis is able to play. Davis is the Browns’ best receiver, but he has missed the last three weeks with a toe injury, and is still questionable. 

The Jets (6-3) have now lost two straight games after their 20-17 loss to Baltimore. The players have to be a little demoralized knowing it was a game they should have won. On the other hand, they can feel good knowing that backup quarterback, Quincy Carter played pretty well, and he should be better this week.

New York must get back to basics, which means establishing the run with Curtis Martin and backup LaMont Jordan. The Browns allowed Pittsburgh’s Jerome Bettis to run over them for 103 yards last week, and the Jets feature the same kind of physical offensive line that the Steelers do.  

This is a must win game for the Jets, as they can not afford to lose three straight games if they want to make the playoffs. The Browns won their first three homes games, but have now lost their last two at home. This will be a close game, but the Jets are more talented on both sides of the ball, and win by a field goal. 

Pick: NY Jets

Atlanta (-2.5) at NY Giants 

The Giants dropped to 5-4 after losing to Arizona 17-14. After seeing his team lose three out of four games, coach Tom Coughlin has decided to hand over the keys to the car to rookie Eli Manning. Don’t think for a second though, that Coughlin is giving up on the season, as the Giants are very much in the playoff hunt.  

One of the reasons Coughlin felt pressure to start Manning, is that rookie quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger has played great for the Steelers. Roethlisberger however, is playing behind a great offensive line, while former Giants starter, Kurt Warner was sacked 39 times in nine games. That spells trouble for Manning.  

The Atlanta Falcons are 7-2, and are the best team in the NFL that nobody is talking about. Granted, Atlanta has had some easy games on the schedule, but they did beat the Broncos in Denver, which is very hard to do. Quarterback, Michael Vick seems to be finally acclimating himself to the new offense.  

It is not hard to figure out the game plan of the Atlanta defense. They will bring the pressure off the end with Patrick Kerney and Brady Smith, who have a combined 12 sacks. Atlanta is able to generate a pass rush without having to blitz, and Manning will be challenged to hang in the pocket and find his receivers. 

The decision to start Manning is surprising, considering that the team can not afford to continue to fall backwards. The Giants fans seem happy about the change, and they will be a loud bunch on Sunday. Look for Manning to struggle early in this game, and for the Falcons to win by a touchdown.  

Pick: Atlanta

Miami (+9.5) at Seattle

Could things be going any worse for the Miami Dolphins? The Dolphins are 1-8, their coach, Dave Wannstedt has quit, and they have been ravaged by injuries as much as any team in the league. Oh, and their star running back, Ricky Williams would prefer smoking illegal substances than playing in the NFL. 

Interim coach, Jim Bates could one day be a fine NFL coach, but he is the captain of a sinking ship. Their offense is one of the NFL’s worst, so Bates has decided to start quarterback AJ Feeley over Jay Fiedler. The Dolphins will not be able to run the ball this week, so Feeley will have plenty of throwing chances.  

Seattle (5-4) is an angry team after a 23-12 loss at St. Louis. Running back, Shaun Alexander had 176 yards on the ground, but he also had a key fumble in the fourth quarter. The loss drops them to a tie in the NFC West division with the Rams, but St. Louis owns the tie-breaker as they have swept the season series. 

The Seahawks defense is an aggressive one under Ray Rhodes, and they are sure to blitz Feeley at will. The pass rush will also be aided by the return of defensive end, Grant Wistrom. Miami is only averaging 12.5 points per game on the road this year, and it would be surprising if they topped that amount this week.   

The good news for the Seahawks is that this game starts the soft part of their schedule. After Miami, they have Dallas and Buffalo at home, so there is no reason they should not be 8-4 heading into a December 12th game at Minnesota. Seattle gets it going here with a double digit win against a woeful Dolphins team.  

Pick: Seattle

New England (-3) at Kansas City 

Kansas City’s 27-20 loss at New Orleans puts the team at 3-6, and essentially ruined any hope of them making a playoff run. To make matters worse, running back Priest Holmes will likely miss this game with sprained knee ligaments. Backup, Derrick Blaylock has played very well, but Holmes is still a big loss. 

Quarterback, Trent Green has rebounded nicely after a slow start. Green is averaging over 350 yards passing the last three games, and he will try to exploit a banged up Patriots secondary. Green does have four interceptions in the last two games, and it is imperative that he play mistake free football this week. 

New England (8-1) keeps on rolling after a 29-6 beating of Buffalo. Their defense is once again one of the leagues best, as they are 4th in the NFL in points allowed. The Chiefs may pile up some yardage numbers this week, but the Patriots defense always seems to find a way to keep their opponents out of the end zone.   

The Patriots plan will be to pound Corey Dillon to try to keep the powerful Kansas City offense on the sidelines. Dillon is averaging 112 yards rushing per game on five yards per carry, and is the teams offensive MVP this year. The one game he missed this year, was the Patriots only loss, 34-20 to Pittsburgh. 

There is always a worry about going against home teams on Monday Night Football games. However, when you look at the statistics from this year, you see that home teams are 4-6 against the spread.  New England is by far the better all around team and they win by a touchdown, even in a tough venue.  

Pick: New England