1) Texans +4 vs.
Vikings
JUSTIFICATION: At first glance at this line
you would have to wonder what the
Handicapping Gods have been smoking. The
Vikings are supposed to be contending for a
Super Bowl slot and the lowly Texans lost to
San Diego and Detroit. The average
"investor" would think the Vikings would
easily be a six or seven point favorite in
this game, especially coming off of a bye
week. But, the Handicapping Gods know what
they are doing. There is a very good reason
why this line is so low. The Vikings have a
six game road losing streak, they have lost
10 of their last 11 games on grass and lost
road games to such powerhouses as San Diego,
Oakland, Chicago, and Arizona last season.
Obviously, this team does not play well on
the road and especially on a grass field. If
there is one thing I've learned in "Sports
Investing" is that when the line seems way
out of whack, it isn't. The Handicapping
Gods know what they are doing and never
forget that. If you do, you will be on the
short side of a lot your plays. Take the
home dog in this matchup.
2) Cardinals +1 1/2 @ 49ers
JUSTIFICATION: The Cards got off the schnide
last week by beating the Saints. The 49ers
got behind early and were never able to
catch up against the Rams, dropping their
record to 0-4. Two pretty bad teams in this
matchup but the Cards have a pretty solid
scoring defense. They should be able to shut
down the paltry offense the 49ers put on the
field. The Cards are feeling pretty good
about themselves and the 49ers are a bit
down. Lines makers usually give the
home team 2 1/2 to three points advantage.
In this case, I think they are only giving
the 49ers 1 1/2 points. The fans won't be
much of an advantage to the 49ers and, in
fact, could be a detriment. Fans tend to
turn on the home team when they play as
poorly as the 49ers have this season. The
Cards have a slight edge in field goal
kicker so, I expect a close game but am
looking for the Cards to pull away late and
win this game, making it two weeks in a row
where they provided supporters with straight
up wins as underdogs.
3) Raiders +9 @ Colts
JUSTIFICATION: Kerry Collins didn't play
very well last week in his first start for
the Silver and Black. I expect he will be
much more comfortable this week especially
going up against a very weak Colts defense.
This should be a pretty high scoring game. I
expect Collins will be able to exploit the
Colts defense and score more than 30 points.
The Colts don't play as well at home as one
might expect. Nine points is just a bit too
much for them to cover, in my view. A late
forth quarter TD by the Raiders, playing
against a prevent defense should be enough
to cover the line and take the cash.
4) Seahawks -6 1/2 vs. Rams
JUSTIFICATION: This is a very important game
for the Seahawks. They have a chance to all
but put away the NFC West this early in the
season. The Rams played well last week
against a very weak 49er team but will face
a much tougher opponent this week. The
Seahawks have won 10 consecutive home starts
with Hasselbeck at the helm. The Rams
traditionally don't play well on the road
and especially on grass. Look for the
Seahawks to put a lot of pressure on Bulger
who has had difficulty when put into
situations where he is under duress. This
should be a double digit win for the
Seahawks.
5) Jaguars -2 1/2 @ Chargers
JUSTIFICATION: The Jags came back to earth
last week but still played a very good game
against the Colts. They actually found they
have the ability to score too, which has to
be a great sense of relief for the coaching
staff. They have to travel cross-country in
this game but I don't think they will be too
down after their loss to the Colts. Brees
had a career game against the Titans. He has
to come back toward his historical norms
especially against a very tough Jags
defense. The Chargers have only won three
games at home in their last 12. Look for a
much wider margin of victory than the spread
that's listed.
Don Pinchin
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