1) Redskins -3 @ Browns

JUSTIFICATION: Suggs is coming back this week, which should help the Browns anemic offensive attack. However, I don't think his presence will be enough to overcome a lot of obstacles this week. The Browns are weak against the run and the Skins have the third best rushing attack in the NFC. The Browns have the second worse defense in the AFC. To make matters even worse, the Browns lost another starting LB this week which will likely make the Skins rushing attack even more formidable. The Skins lost to a pretty good Dallas team last week but were still able to put up nearly 400 yards in total offense. If the Skins can do that against Dallas, they should be able to really role up the yards and score against the Browns. For those of you who are trend players, there are a couple of interesting trends for this game.  Last season the Browns were 0-3 ATS as home underdogs; were 1-5 ATS coming off a two game road trip; and were 1-4 ATS in games where the spread was -3 to +3. The line opened in this game at -1 1/2 and moved to -3 real quick.  Also, the total moved from 36 to 35. If the spread moves 1 1/2 points and the total drops by one, a lot of people with money think the favorite
(Skins) are a lock Count me in that group of folks only I don't have the money they do to back up my conviction.


2) Ravens -5 vs. Chiefs

JUSTIFICATION: The line on this game is very similar to my first selection above. The spread moved from -4 to -5 and the total dropped from 42 to 41 1/2. A wider spread and fewer total points indicates, to me, that the favorite will win and win big. The vaunted Ravens defense has struggled a bit on pass defense this year. However, the KC pass attack only has three more passing yards than that that offensive juggernaut, the Miami Dolphins so, I don't think that will be too much of a concern. Trends tend to favor the Ravens as well. The Ravens are 10-5 in their last 15 versus the AFC West; the Ravens were 4-1 as home favorites last year and, since 1992, the Ravens are 16-10 coming off a road win. With the Ravens finally scoring some points the last two weeks, and the Chiefs allowing everyone to push them around on defense, I look for Jamal Lewis to have a huge game. This game looks like a low scoring game but a double digit win by the Ravens.


3) Eagles -9 @ Bears

JUSTIFICATION: Here's my final pick using my new favorite tool. The spread moved from 8 1/2 to 9 and the total dropped from 41 to 40. An indicator, to me, that the favorite will win and win big. With Grossman out, and Quinn stepping in as the starter, the Eagles have to be salivating at the mouth waiting to start this game. The Bears have a very good rushing attack with a rejuvenated Thomas Jones but, without much of a passing threat, the Eagles will be able to shut him down and force Quinn to beat them through the air.  Something I don't think he is capable of. Over the last three years, the Eagles are 10-3 ATS as road favorites. I see no reason to jump off that money making trend this week. Its a lot of points but take the plunge and spot them anyway.


4) Giants +7 @ Packers

JUSTIFICATION: Kurt Warner is living up to my expectations this season.
Its still early but, I had him identified as one of my sleeper picks for this year and he has done nothing to disappoint me so far. The Packers have a lot of problems in the secondary besting only three other teams in the NFC in pass defense. Warner has looked sharper each week so I expect that he will be able to move the ball versus a suspect Pack defense. This game is critical to both teams so I expect that they will probably play it pretty close to the vest, not wanting to make a stupid mistake that gives the game away. So, in a lower than expected scoring game, take the points.


5) Cardinals +3 vs. Saints

JUSTIFICATION: The Cards are the complete antithesis of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are 3-0 but could just as easily be 0-3. The Cards are 0-3 but could be 3-0 or at the least 2-1. They catch a Saints team that had a gift given to them last week versus a weak Rams team thanks to HC Martz's on-side kick decision. Aaron Stecker performed admirably filling in for Deuce McAllister but, can't be expected to repeat such a performance again.  The Saints have the second worse defense in the entire NFL. The Cards have a putrid offense but should be able to score on these guys. If the Cards can do anything to slow down the Saints passing attack they will be in this game until the very end. The Cards play real well in the Arizona heat and catching the Saints with some key injuries should be all the difference they need to not only cover the spread but win this game outright.


Don Pinchin
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