1) Browns +4 vs. Steelers

JUSTIFICATION: I'm going to be taking a contrarian view this week on most of my picks. The Steelers have just come off a first in NFL history, defeating undefeated teams in back-to-back weeks, this late in the season.  After such a great showing, the average bettor will be jumping on the bandwagon assuming that if the Steelers can be the Patriots and Eagles they can surely cover four measly points against the lowly Browns. The Steelers have won six games in a row ATS. Vegas bookmakers aren't stupid. I think they have added one and maybe two points to the spread to balance out the public's money but the big bettors are going to play the Browns. Look for a letdown and a possible straight up win by the Browns at home.


2) Jets +2 vs. Ravens

JUSTIFICATION: The Jets have only covered the spread once in the last six games. Vegas likes to make these ATS numbers a little more balanced. I've got to think the game would have been a pickem game if not for that fact alone. The Jets have also lost their starting QB. This will play heavily in the publics betting patterns. Reality is that the loss of a starting QB is usually worth only two or, in extreme cases, three points to the spread.  Quincy Carter is an experienced NFL QB and will do an adequate job. The Jets will just rely on their rushing attack to control the ball. The Ravens have a lot of problems on offense and for them to be favored, on the road, is an anomaly. Take the Jets and expect a straight up victory.


3) Falcons -3 1/2 vs. Bucs

JUSTIFICATION: The Bucs have covered three of the last four against the Falcons and have put together a pretty nice run by winning three of their last four games since Griese took over. So, why go against them? The main reason is that Griese took everyone off guard by his exceptional play.  Defensive Coordinators didn't have much film on him as he was the number 3 QB all year long. They didn't know how to exploit his weaknesses and the results were good for Griese and poor for the teams he was playing. Now that he is a known commodity, DC's will know how to defense him. The Falcons have a vastly improved defense and have had a week off to prepare for this game. Look for them to offer up a few surprises and force Griese into some poor decisions. In the past, he has struggled in these type of situations and I haven't seen enough to make me change my mind about him.


4) Chiefs -4 1/2 @ Saints

JUSTIFICATION: The Chiefs showed that they have fixed their offensive problems by putting up 31 points against a good Bucs defense. The Saints are dead last in the NFL giving up over 29 points per game. The Chiefs will be licking their chops to play this game they way they are playing at present. Their defense is still a joke but the Saints are in such disarray that they would struggle against a high school team. In five home games this season, the Saints are one and four straight up and 0-5 ATS. The Chiefs win this game by double digits.


5) Texans +9 vs. Colts

JUSTIFICATION: The Texans are on a cover two, lose one pattern over their last six games. They lost their last game ATS so, if you believe in patterns, they should cover this week. They also seem to play well in November covering the spread in seven of their last nine played in this month. The Colts have not covered in three weeks, due mainly to their atrocious defense, giving up 28, 45 and 27 points in those three ATS losses.  The Colts though, have won four straight meetings straight up versus Houston, but, Houston has covered the last two. Look for more of the same in this game. A high scoring affair, to be sure, but nine points is an awful lot to overcome, especially when a bad defense goes into the prevent defense. A late Houston TD will be enough to cover this game.


Don Pinchin
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