Trying to improve on my my 42-33-05 (56.00%) 2003 NFL Regular season record.



1)  Titans -3 @ Dolphins

JUSTIFICATION: The Titans bucked the traditional trend of playing their starters in the third preseason game and sitting them in the last game. The starters played well in the last preseason game as their timing and execution was far superior than previous weeks. The Dolphins have had more distractions this summer than any other team in the NFL. If losing Ricky Williams, and David Boston weren't enough, they also threw in a quarterback controversy to make it even more interesting for their fans. Additionally, they also have missed a lot of quality practice time due to severe weather in Florida throughout the summer. This weather culminated in Hurricane Francis hitting just north of Miami last weekend. The players actually voted to cancel the last preseason game in New Orleans but the NFL overruled them and made them play the game. The Dolphins now have to concern themselves with Hurricane Ivan bearing down on south Florida. All of these factors point to a team which does not have its head right with ball. As professional as they are, the mental strain of worrying about family, friends, houses etc. has got to take a toll on anyone, no matter how much they try to block it out. I expect the Dolphins to be very flat in this game and that the Titans will win by double digit numbers. That is of course, if the game is able to be played.

2)  Redskins -2 vs. Bucs

JUSTIFICATION: The Bucs really didn't look sharp in the preseason at all, except for when Chris Simms came into the game. Unfortunately, Simms will be the #2 QB in this game. Similar to the Dolphins, the Bucs player's families just took a direct hit from Hurricane Francis. The Tampa area suffered a lot of flooding. A lot of star players have houses on the water and the concern for their families has got to have an affect on their on-field performance. If this was the same Bucs coming off of their Super Bowl year, I would discount all the problems, as their football skills were at an all-time high but, this team struggled last season and appears to be on the down slope of a long and slippery slide. The Skins will be highly motivated in this game, as it is Joe Gibbs' first game after a long hiatus.
The addition of Clinton Portis gives the Skins a valuable weapon and Mark Brunell is a huge upgrade over Patrick Ramsey. Given the mental makeup for this game, giving two points appears to be a very cheap play. I would have expected another point or two. For what its worth, Michael Clayton is my preseason pick for Rookie of the Year.

3)  Giants +9 1/2 @ Eagles

JUSTIFICATION: This is a line based mainly on trends. The Eagles have absolutely owned the Giants of late, winning five of the last six matchups.  However, three of those five victories were by four points or less. In other words, this is a rivalry game and records can be thrown out the window. The Eagles are expected to be Super Bowl contenders this season with the addition of Terrell Owens to an already strong team. The Giants are in disarray with a new head coach, a new (old) starting QB and a defense that was decimated by injuries last season. All point to an easy Philly victory. Keep in mind however, Vegas is trying to split the betting pool.  They know this is a trend game that a lot of weekend investors are aware of so, they bump the line up a couple of points. This game has "trap" written all over it. These are the kind of games that jump up and bite the unwary.  Be wary. Nine and a half points is at least two points too high for this game.

4)  Steelers -4 1/2 vs. Raiders

JUSTIFICATION: The Steelers sent a very clear message to the NFL in preseason. They will run the ball early and often this season. This approach is what the Steelers were founded on, in their glory years, and will also keep a very suspect Steelers defense off the field. The Raiders decided to play the preseason games to win finishing with a 3-1 record.
This happens often with teams that will be bad in an attempt to inspire some hope in their players and fans before reality sets in. The Raiders have a plethora of question marks. Gannon will be the starter but, for how long?  The WR corps has no clear cut standout, even with Jerry Rice, who is getting very old by NFL standards. The running game has no clear cut go-to guy and the defense, which was abysmal against the run last season, giving up over 150 yards per game, added Warren Sapp to help correct the problem. I don't think Sapp will do much of anything to help the run defense and the Steelers should be able to have their way with the Raiders defense. Expect Duce Staley to have a huge game and solidify himself as the running back of the future in Pittsburgh.

5)  Bengals +4 1/2 @ Jets

JUSTIFICATION: What worries me most about this game is the fact that the Jets' wide receivers have had very little playing time during training camp.  Santana Moss has been out with a hamstring injury and the others WR's have suffered a multitude of lesser injuries. I'm sure that now that the games count, each of these players will be able to play, as most of the time missed was purely precautionary. However, the timing routes will undoubtedly suffer. The Bengals start the Carson Palmer era this week.  They actually have visions of being a playoff contender this season and want to get off to a fast start. They actually have some skill players on offense this season including good wide receivers, a surprisingly good running game and a young QB with a very strong arm. So, unlike previous seasons, if one element of the game plan isn't working, they can switch to another. I expect the Bengals to win this game straight up so getting 4 1/2 points seems like a very prudent play.


Don Pinchin
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