1) Georgia Tech -9 vs. Connecticut

JUSTIFICATION: Connecticut started the season off very well. They showed a lot of promise and were definitely a team on the rise. However, when they came up against better quality teams, they failed miserably. The Huskies have failed to cover in there last three games while Georgia Tech has covered in three of their last four. UCONNs competition in those games was markedly weaker than that which Georgia Tech faced. UCONN has lost their two road games this season, I expect that the trend will continue in a big way.


2) Texas A&M -2 1/2 vs. Texas Tech

JUSTIFICATION: The Aggies are 4-1 at home and 6-3 ATS this season. Texas Tech has won the last three meetings between these two schools so, I don't think A&M will overlook them or take them lightly. These two teams can score so another high scoring affair (in the low sixties) should be in the offing. I am taking A&M mostly due to the home field advantage and the confidence they will have after playing Oklahoma very closely last week.


3) San Jose State +31 1/2 vs. Boise State

JUSTIFICATION: San Jose State has only given up over 41 points three times this year, and they won one of those games. I think they will be able to score at least 10 points. If they do, they cover easily. The line on this game is just way too high. The betting public knows that Boise State has to win, and win big, to have any chance of making a BCS bowl game. They have driven the spread up to unreasonable levels. Boise State also has a lot of pressure on themselves, playing away from that ugly blue field and covering that big of a spread. The San Jose State team will be motivated to keep the score under the spread to at least gain a moral victory. I think they are more than capable.


4) Minnesota -3 vs. Iowa

JUSTIFICATION: Lets see if we have this right. Iowa is a ranked team, number 19, and Iowa has beaten Minnesota by lopsided scores the last three times they have met. Yet, Minnesota is favored in this game by three points. Somebody with a lot of money is laying it down on Minnesota. The only trend I see that could justify that is that Minnesota is 5-0 at home and covered the spread three out of four times (one no line game) in each of those home games. I'm going to take Minnesota as a pure line play. The line is telling me to take Minnesota and I'm going to listen.


5) Virginia -3 1/2 vs. Miami

JUSTIFICATION: I have to admit, I haven't been impressed with Miami all year. Brock Berlin makes way to many mistakes. Of late, Miami has played very poorly, losing their last two games against relatively weak competition. The competition will jump up a notch this week. Virginia has a very tough defense, a defense that will cause Berlin to make poor decisions and force him into at least three turnovers. Look for this game to be a blowout.



Don Pinchin
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